Safety of Switching From a Vitamin K Antagonist to a Non-Vitamin K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulant in Frail Older Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: Results of the FRAIL-AF Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: There is ambiguity whether frail patients with atrial fibrillation managed with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) should be switched to a non-vitamin K oral anticoagulant (NOAC). METHODS: We conducted a pragmatic, multicenter, open-label, randomized controlled superiority trial. Older patients with atrial fibrillation living with frailty (≥75 years of age plus a Groningen Frailty Indicator score ≥3) were randomly assigned to switch from international normalized ratio-guided VKA treatment to an NOAC or to continued VKA treatment. Patients with a glomerular filtration rate <30 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2 or with valvular atrial fibrillation were excluded. Follow-up was 12 months. The cause-specific hazard ratio was calculated for occurrence of the primary outcome that was a major or clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding complication, whichever came first, accounting for death as a competing risk. Analyses followed the intention-to-treat principle. Secondary outcomes included thromboembolic events. RESULTS: Between January 2018 and June 2022, a total of 2621 patients were screened for eligibility and 1330 patients were randomly assigned (mean age 83 years, median Groningen Frailty Indicator score 4). After randomization, 6 patients in the switch-to-NOAC arm and 1 patient in the continue-with-VKA arm were excluded due to the presence of exclusion criteria, leaving 662 patients switched from a VKA to an NOAC and 661 patients continued VKAs in the intention-to-treat population. After 163 primary outcome events (101 in the switch arm, 62 in the continue arm), the trial was stopped for futility according to a prespecified futility analysis. The hazard ratio for our primary outcome was 1.69 (95% CI, 1.23-2.32). The hazard ratio for thromboembolic events was 1.26 (95% CI, 0.60-2.61). CONCLUSIONS: Switching international normalized ratio-guided VKA treatment to an NOAC in frail older patients with atrial fibrillation was associated with more bleeding complications compared with continuing VKA treatment, without an associated reduction in thromboembolic complications. REGISTRATION: URL: https://eudract.ema.europa.eu; Unique identifier: 2017-000393-11. URL: https://eudract.ema.europa.eu; Unique identifier: 6721 (FRAIL-AF study).

[Designing observational studies by target trial emulation]. / De hypothetische trial.

Ideally, causal research questions will be answered with randomized trials, but this is not always feasible for practical, ethical, or methodological reasons. To obtain a reliable answer to causal questions with observational data, target trial emulation has been introduced, in which an observational study is designed, conducted, and analyzed emulating the target trial. After phrasing a causal question, this framework first addresses seven components of the target trial protocol: eligibility criteria, treatment strategies, assignment procedures, follow-up period, outcome of interest, causal contrast of interest, and statistical analysis plan. Subsequently, these elements are emulated in the observational study. This approach addresses methodological pitfalls before initiating the study, draws more unambiguous conclusions, and provides a structured assessment of limitations of observational studies as well as randomized trials. The use of the target trial framework to support the design of observational studies is increasing.

The STEPWISE study: study protocol for a smartphone-based exercise solution for people with Parkinson's Disease (randomized controlled trial).

BACKGROUND: Exercise has various health benefits for people with Parkinson's disease (PD). However, implementing exercise into daily life and long-term adherence remain challenging. To increase a sustainable engagement with physical activity of people with PD, interventions that are motivating, accessible, and scalable are needed. We primarily aim to investigate whether a smartphone app (STEPWISE app) can increase physical activity (i.e., step count) in people with PD over one year. Our second aim is to investigate the potential effects of the intervention on physical fitness, and motor- and non-motor function. Our third aim is to explore whether there is a dose-response relationship between volume of physical activity and our secondary endpoints. METHODS: STEPWISE is a double-blind, randomized controlled trial. We aim to include 452 Dutch people with PD who can walk independently (Hoehn & Yahr stages 1-3) and who do not take more than 7,000 steps per day prior to inclusion. Physical activity levels are measured as step counts on the participant's own smartphone and scaled as percentage of each participant's baseline. Participants are randomly assigned to an active control group with an increase of 5-20% (active controls) or any of the three intervention arms with increases of 25-100% (intermediate dose), 50-200% (large dose), or 100-400% (very large dose). The primary endpoint is change in step count as measured by the STEPWISE smartphone app from baseline to 52 weeks. For our primary aim, we will evaluate the between-group difference in average daily step count change from baseline to 52 weeks. For our second aim, measures of physical fitness, and motor- and non-motor function are included. For our third aim, we will associate 52-week changes in step count with 52-week changes in secondary outcomes. DISCUSSION: This trial evaluates the potential of a smartphone-based intervention to increase activity levels in people with PD. We envision that motivational apps will increase adherence to physical activity recommendations and could permit conduct of remote clinical trials of exercise for people with PD or those at risk of PD. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov; NCT04848077; 19/04/2021. CLINICALTRIALS: gov/ct2/show/NCT04848077.

Hybrid Controlled Clinical Trials Using Concurrent Registries in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: A Feasibility Study.

Hybrid designs with both randomized arms and an external control cohort preserve key features of randomization and utilize external information to augment clinical trials. In this study, we propose to leverage high-quality, patient-level concurrent registries to enhance clinical trials and illustrate the impact on trial design for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. The proposed methodology was evaluated in a randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trial. We used patient-level information from a well-defined, population-based registry, that was running parallel to the randomized clinical trial, to identify concurrently nonparticipating, eligible patients who could be matched with trial participants, and integrate them into the statistical analysis. We assessed the impact of the addition of the external controls on the treatment effect estimate, precision, and time to reach a conclusion. During the runtime of the trial, a total of 1,141 registry patients were alive; 473 (41.5%) of them fulfilled the eligibility criteria and 133 (11.7%) were enrolled in the study. A matched control population could be identified among the nonparticipating patients. Augmenting the randomized controls with matched external controls could have avoided unnecessary randomization of 17 patients (-12.8%) as well as reducing the study duration from 30.1 months to 22.6 months (-25.0%). Matching eligible external controls from a different calendar period led to bias in the treatment effect estimate. Hybrid trial designs utilizing a concurrent registry with rigorous matching can minimize bias due to a mismatch in calendar time and differences in standard of care, and may accelerate the development of new treatments.

The Trial within Cohorts (TwiCs) study design in oncology: experience and methodological reflections.

A Trial within Cohorts (TwiCs) study design is a trial design that uses the infrastructure of an observational cohort study to initiate a randomized trial. Upon cohort enrollment, the participants provide consent for being randomized in future studies without being informed. Once a new treatment is available, eligible cohort participants are randomly assigned to the treatment or standard of care. Patients randomized to the treatment arm are offered the new treatment, which they can choose to refuse. Patients who refuse will receive standard of care instead. Patients randomized to the standard of care arm receive no information about the trial and continue receiving standard of care as part of the cohort study. Standard cohort measures are used for outcome comparisons. The TwiCs study design aims to overcome some issues encountered in standard Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs). An example of an issue in standard RCTs is the slow patient accrual. A TwiCs study aims to improve this by selecting patients using a cohort and only offering the intervention to patients in the intervention arm. In oncology, the TwiCs study design has gained increasing interest during the last decade. Despite its potential advantages over RCTs, the TwiCs study design has several methodological challenges that need careful consideration when planning a TwiCs study. In this article, we focus on these challenges and reflect on them using experiences from TwiCs studies initiated in oncology. Important methodological challenges that are discussed are the timing of randomization, the issue of non-compliance (refusal) after randomization in the intervention arm, and the definition of the intention-to-treat effect in a TwiCs study and how this effect is related to its counterpart in standard RCTs.

Combining evidence from clinical trials in conditional or accelerated approval.

Conditional (European Medicines Agency) or accelerated (U.S. Food and Drug Administration) approval of drugs allows earlier access to promising new treatments that address unmet medical needs. Certain post-marketing requirements must typically be met in order to obtain full approval, such as conducting a new post-market clinical trial. We study the applicability of the recently developed harmonic mean χ 2 -test to this conditional or accelerated approval framework. The proposed approach can be used both to support the design of the post-market trial and the analysis of the combined evidence provided by both trials. Other methods considered are the two-trials rule, Fisher's criterion and Stouffer's method. In contrast to some of the traditional methods, the harmonic mean χ 2 -test always requires a post-market clinical trial. If the p -value from the pre-market clinical trial is ≪ 0.025 , a smaller sample size for the post-market clinical trial is needed than with the two-trials rule. For illustration, we apply the harmonic mean χ 2 -test to a drug which received conditional (and later full) market licensing by the EMA. A simulation study is conducted to study the operating characteristics of the harmonic mean χ 2 -test and two-trials rule in more detail. We finally investigate the applicability of these two methods to compute the power at interim of an ongoing post-market trial. These results are expected to aid in the design and assessment of the required post-market studies in terms of the level of evidence required for full approval.

TUBectomy with delayed oophorectomy as an alternative to risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy in high-risk women to assess the safety of prevention: the TUBA-WISP II study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Risk-reducing salpingectomy with delayed oophorectomy has gained interest for individuals at high risk for tubo-ovarian cancer as there is compelling evidence that especially high-grade serous carcinoma originates in the fallopian tubes. Two studies have demonstrated a positive effect of salpingectomy on menopause-related quality of life and sexual health compared with standard risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy. PRIMARY OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether salpingectomy with delayed oophorectomy is non-inferior to the current standard salpingo-oophorectomy for the prevention of tubo-ovarian cancer among individuals at high inherited risk. STUDY HYPOTHESIS: We hypothesize that postponement of oophorectomy after salpingectomy, to the age of 40-45 (BRCA1) or 45-50 (BRCA2) years, compared with the current standard salpingo-oophorectomy at age 35-40 (BRCA1) or 40-45 (BRCA2) years, is non-inferior in regard to tubo-ovarian cancer risk. TRIAL DESIGN: In this international prospective preference trial, participants will choose between the novel salpingectomy with delayed oophorectomy and the current standard salpingo-oophorectomy. Salpingectomy can be performed after the completion of childbearing and between the age of 25 and 40 (BRCA1), 25 and 45 (BRCA2), or 25 and 50 (BRIP1, RAD51C, and RAD51D pathogenic variant carriers) years. Subsequent oophorectomy is recommended at a maximum delay of 5 years beyond the upper limit of the current guideline age for salpingo-oophorectomy. The current National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) guideline age, which is also the recommended age for salpingo-oophorectomy within the study, is 35-40 years for BRCA1, 40-45 years for BRCA2, and 45-50 years for BRIP1, RAD51C, and RAD51D pathogenic variant carriers. MAJOR INCLUSION/EXCLUSION CRITERIA: Premenopausal individuals with a documented class IV or V germline pathogenic variant in the BRCA1, BRCA2, BRIP1, RAD51C, or RAD51D gene who have completed childbearing are eligible for participation. Participants may have a personal history of a non-ovarian malignancy. PRIMARY ENDPOINT: The primary outcome is the cumulative tubo-ovarian cancer incidence at the target age: 46 years for BRCA1 and 51 years for BRCA2 pathogenic variant carriers. SAMPLE SIZE: The sample size to ensure sufficient power to test non-inferiority of salpingectomy with delayed oophorectomy compared with salpingo-oophorectomy requires 1500 BRCA1 and 1500 BRCA2 pathogenic variant carriers. ESTIMATED DATES FOR COMPLETING ACCRUAL AND PRESENTING RESULTS: Participant recruitment is expected to be completed at the end of 2026 (total recruitment period of 5 years). The primary outcome is expected to be available in 2036 (minimal follow-up period of 10 years). TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04294927.

In silico cancer immunotherapy trials uncover the consequences of therapy-specific response patterns for clinical trial design and outcome.

Late-stage cancer immunotherapy trials often lead to unusual survival curve shapes, like delayed curve separation or a plateauing curve in the treatment arm. It is critical for trial success to anticipate such effects in advance and adjust the design accordingly. Here, we use in silico cancer immunotherapy trials - simulated trials based on three different mathematical models - to assemble virtual patient cohorts undergoing late-stage immunotherapy, chemotherapy, or combination therapies. We find that all three simulation models predict the distinctive survival curve shapes commonly associated with immunotherapies. Considering four aspects of clinical trial design - sample size, endpoint, randomization rate, and interim analyses - we demonstrate how, by simulating various possible scenarios, the robustness of trial design choices can be scrutinized, and possible pitfalls can be identified in advance. We provide readily usable, web-based implementations of our three trial simulation models to facilitate their use by biomedical researchers, doctors, and trialists.

Ethnic differences in response to atypical antipsychotics in patients with schizophrenia: individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised placebo-controlled registration trials submitted to the Dutch Medicines Evaluation Board.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the effect of ethnicity on the response to antipsychotic medication in patients with schizophrenia. AIMS: To determine whether ethnicity moderates the response to antipsychotic medication in patients with schizophrenia, and whether this moderation is independent of confounders. METHOD: We analysed 18 short-term, placebo-controlled registration trials of atypical antipsychotic medications in patients with schizophrenia (N = 3880). A two-step, random-effects, individual patient data meta-analysis was applied to establish the moderating effect of ethnicity (White versus Black) on symptom improvement according to the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) and on response, defined as >30% BPRS reduction. These analyses were corrected for baseline severity, baseline negative symptoms, age and gender. A conventional meta-analysis was performed to determine the effect size of antipsychotic treatment for each ethnic group separately. RESULTS: In the complete data-set, 61% of patients were White, 25.6% of patients were Black and 13.4% of patients were of other ethnicities. Ethnicity did not moderate the efficacy of antipsychotic treatment: pooled ß-coefficient for the interaction between treatment and ethnic group was -0.582 (95% CI -2.567 to 1.412) for mean BPRS change, with an odds ratio of 0.875 (95% CI 0.510-1.499) for response. These results were not modified by confounders. CONCLUSIONS: Atypical antipsychotic medication is equally effective in both Black and White patients with schizophrenia. In registration trials, White and Black patients were overrepresented relative to other ethnic groups, limiting the generalisability of our findings.

Randomized double-blind placebo-controlled crossover trial with pyridostigmine in spinal muscular atrophy types 2-4.

Hereditary proximal spinal muscular atrophy causes weakness and increased fatigability of repetitive motor functions. The neuromuscular junction is anatomically and functionally abnormal in patients with spinal muscular atrophy. Pharmacological improvement of neuromuscular transmission may therefore represent a promising additional treatment strategy. We conducted a Phase II, monocentre, placebo-controlled, double-blind, cross-over trial with the acetylcholinesterase inhibitor pyridostigmine in treatment-naïve patients with spinal muscular atrophy types 2-4. We investigated the safety and efficacy of pyridostigmine on fatigability and motor function. Each participant received pyridostigmine and a placebo for 8 weeks, in random order. Primary outcomes were the repeated nine-hole peg test for fatigability and motor function measure. Secondary outcomes were patient-reported effects, endurance shuttle test combined scores and adverse events. We included 35 patients. For the repeated nine-hole peg test, the mean difference was 0.17 s/trial (95% confidence interval: -1.17-1.49; P = 0.8), favouring placebo, and for the motor function measure, 0.74% (95% confidence interval: 0.00-1.49; P = 0.05), favouring pyridostigmine. Around 74% of patients reported medium-to-large beneficial effects of pyridostigmine on fatigability, compared with 29.7% in the placebo arm. This was paralleled by a reduced dropout risk of 70% on the endurance shuttle test combined scores (hazard ratio: 0.30; 95% confidence interval: 0.15-0.58) under pyridostigmine. Adverse events, mostly mild and self-limiting, occurred more frequently under pyridostigmine. No serious adverse events related to the study medication were observed. Patients with spinal muscular atrophy tolerated pyridostigmine well. There were no significant differences in primary outcomes, but the self-reported reduction of fatigability and improved endurance shuttle test combined score performance suggest that pyridostigmine may be useful as an additional therapy to survival motor neuron-augmenting drugs. Trial registration number: EudraCT: 2011-004369-34, NCT02941328.

Gender differences in the response to antipsychotic medication in patients with schizophrenia: An individual patient data meta-analysis of placebo-controlled studies.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether gender and menopausal status moderate the response to antipsychotic medication in patients with schizophrenia. METHODS: We analyzed data of 22 short-term placebo-controlled registration trials of antipsychotic medications, which included 5,231 patients with schizophrenia. We applied two-step individual patient data meta-regression analyses to establish the influence of gender and menopausal status on treatment response in mean difference in symptom severity and difference in response (>30% symptom reduction). Analyses were performed both with and without correction for baseline (negative) symptom severity. RESULTS: Antipsychotic treatment is associated with larger mean symptom reduction in women than in men with schizophrenia. The number needed to treat (NNT) for a response in women was 6.9, in men 9.4. Although, we found an age by gender effect, the gender by treatment effect was independent of premenopausal status and baseline (negative) symptom severity. CONCLUSION: In the treatment of schizophrenia we found evidence of a higher response to antipsychotic medication in women relative to men. We found no evidence that this effect was driven by menopausal status, or baseline (negative) symptom severity. Despite the impact of gender and age on effect size in acute antipsychotic treatment, efficacy was clinically relevant in all subgroups.

Lithium carbonate in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients homozygous for the C-allele at SNP rs12608932 in UNC13A: protocol for a confirmatory, randomized, group-sequential, event-driven, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Given the large genetic heterogeneity in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), it seems likely that genetic subgroups may benefit differently from treatment. An exploratory meta-analysis identified that patients homozygous for the C-allele at SNP rs12608932, a single nucleotide polymorphism in the gene UNC13A, had a statistically significant survival benefit when treated with lithium carbonate. We aim to confirm the efficacy of lithium carbonate on the time to death or respiratory insufficiency in patients with ALS homozygous for the C-allele at SNP rs12608932 in UNC13A. METHODS: A randomized, group-sequential, event-driven, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial will be conducted in 15 sites across Europe and Australia. Patients will be genotyped for UNC13A; those homozygous for the C-allele at SNP rs12608932 will be eligible. Patients must have a diagnosis of ALS according to the revised El Escorial criteria, and a TRICALS risk-profile score between -6.0 and -2.0. An expected number of 1200 patients will be screened in order to enroll a target sample size of 171 patients. Patients will be randomly allocated in a 2:1 ratio to lithium carbonate or matching placebo, and treated for a maximum duration of 24 months. The primary endpoint is the time to death or respiratory insufficiency, whichever occurs first. Key secondary endpoints include functional decline, respiratory function, quality of life, tolerability, and safety. An interim analysis for futility and efficacy will be conducted after the occurrence of 41 events. DISCUSSION: Lithium carbonate has been proven to be safe and well-tolerated in patients with ALS. Given the favorable safety profile, the potential benefits are considered to outweigh the burden and risks associated with study participation. This study may provide conclusive evidence about the life-prolonging potential of lithium carbonate in a genetic ALS subgroup. TRIAL REGISTRATION: EudraCT number 2020-000579-19 . Registered on 29 March 2021.

Comprehensive Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance-Derived Myocardial Strain Analysis Provides Independent Prognostic Value in Acute Myocarditis.

Background Late gadolinium enhancement and left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction on cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) are prognostic markers, but their predictive value for incident heart failure or life-threatening arrhythmias in acute myocarditis patients is limited. CMR-derived feature tracking provides a more sensitive analysis of myocardial function and may improve risk stratification in myocarditis. In this study, the prognostic value of LV, right ventricular, and left atrial strain in acute myocarditis patients is evaluated. Methods and Results In this multicenter retrospective study, patients with CMR-proven acute myocarditis were included. The primary end point was occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events: all-cause mortality, heart transplantation, heart failure hospitalizations, and life threatening arrhythmias. LV global longitudinal strain, global circumferential strain and global radial strain, right ventricular-global longitudinal strain and left atrial strain were measured. Unadjusted and adjusted cox proportional hazard regression analysis were performed. In total, 162 CMR-proven myocarditis patients were included (41 ± 17 years, 75% men). Mean LV ejection fraction was 51 ± 12%, and 144 (89%) patients had presence of late gadolinium enhancement. Major adverse cardiovascular events occurred in 29 (18%) patients during a follow-up of 5.5 (2.2-8.3) years. All LV strain parameters were independent predictors of outcome beyond clinical features, LV ejection fraction and late gadolinium enhancement (LV-global longitudinal strain: hazard ratio [HR] 1.07, P=0.02; LV-global circumferential strain: HR 1.15, P=0.02; LV-global radial strain: HR 0.98, P=0.03), but right ventricular or left atrial strain did not predict outcome. Conclusions CMR-derived LV strain analysis provides independent prognostic value on top of clinical parameters, LV ejection fraction and late gadolinium enhancement in acute myocarditis patients, while left atrial and right ventricular strain seem to be of less importance.

Multiple N-of-1 trials to investigate hypoxia therapy in Parkinson's disease: study rationale and protocol.

BACKGROUND: Parkinson's disease (PD) is a neurodegenerative disease, for which no disease-modifying therapies exist. Preclinical and clinical evidence suggest that hypoxia-based therapy might have short- and long-term benefits in PD. We present the contours of the first study to assess the safety, feasibility and physiological and symptomatic impact of hypoxia-based therapy in individuals with PD. METHODS/DESIGN: In 20 individuals with PD, we will investigate the safety, tolerability and short-term symptomatic efficacy of continuous and intermittent hypoxia using individual, double-blind, randomized placebo-controlled N-of-1 trials. This design allows for dose finding and for including more individualized outcomes, as each individual serves as its own control. A wide range of exploratory outcomes is deployed, including the Movement Disorders Society Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating scale (MDS-UPDRS) part III, Timed Up & Go Test, Mini Balance Evaluation Systems (MiniBES) test and wrist accelerometry. Also, self-reported impression of overall symptoms, motor and non-motor symptoms and urge to take dopaminergic medication will be assessed on a 10-point Likert scale. As part of a hypothesis-generating part of the study, we also deploy several exploratory outcomes to probe possible underlying mechanisms of action, including cortisol, erythropoietin and platelet-derived growth factor ß. Efficacy will be assessed primarily by a Bayesian analysis. DISCUSSION: This evaluation of hypoxia therapy could provide insight in novel pathways that may be pursued for PD treatment. This trial also serves as a proof of concept for deploying an N-of-1 design and for including individualized outcomes in PD research, as a basis for personalized treatment approaches. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT05214287 (registered January 28, 2022).

Estimation of treatment effects in short-term depression studies. An evaluation based on the ICH E9(R1) estimands framework.

Estimands aim to incorporate intercurrent events in design, data collection and estimation of treatment effects in clinical trials. Our aim was to understand what estimands may correspond to efficacy analyses commonly employed in clinical trials conducted before publication of ICH E9(R1). We re-analysed six clinical trials evaluating a new anti-depression treatment. We selected the following analysis methods-ANCOVA on complete cases, following last observation carried forward (LOCF) imputation and following multiple imputation; mixed-models for repeated measurements without imputation (MMRM), MMRM following LOCF imputation and following jump-to-reference imputation; and pattern-mixture mixed models. We included a principal stratum analysis based on the predicted subset of the study population who would not discontinue due to adverse events or lack of efficacy. We translated each analysis into the implicitly targeted estimand, and formulated corresponding clinical questions. We could map six estimands to analysis methods. The same analysis method could be mapped to more than one estimand. The major difference between estimands was the strategy for intercurrent events, with other attributes mostly the same across mapped estimands. The quantitative differences in MADRS10 population-level summaries between the estimands were 4-8 points. Not all six estimands had a clinically meaningful interpretation. Only a few analyses would target the same estimand, hence only few could be used as sensitivity analyses. The fact that an analysis could estimate different estimands emphasises the importance of prospectively defining the estimands targeting the primary objective of a trial. The fact that an estimand can be targeted by different analyses emphasises the importance of prespecifying precisely the estimator for the targeted estimand.

Left Atrial Strain Has Superior Prognostic Value to Ventricular Function and Delayed-Enhancement in Dilated Cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: The left atrium is an early sensor of left ventricular (LV) dysfunction. Still, the prognostic value of left atrial (LA) function (strain) on cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) in dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) remains unknown. OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of CMR-derived LA strain in DCM. METHODS: Patients with DCM from the Maastricht Cardiomyopathy Registry with available CMR imaging were included. The primary endpoint was the combination of sudden or cardiac death, heart failure (HF) hospitalization, or life-threatening arrhythmias. Given the nonlinearity of continuous variables, cubic spline analysis was performed to dichotomize. RESULTS: A total of 488 patients with DCM were included (median age: 54 [IQR: 46-62] years; 61% male). Seventy patients (14%) reached the primary endpoint (median follow-up: 6 [IQR: 4-9] years). Age, New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class >II, presence of late gadolinium enhancement (LGE), LV ejection fraction (LVEF), LA volume index (LAVI), LV global longitudinal strain (GLS), and LA reservoir and conduit strain were univariably associated with the outcome (all P < 0.02). LA conduit strain was a stronger predictor of outcome compared with reservoir strain. LA conduit strain, NYHA functional class >II, and LGE remained associated in the multivariable model (LA conduit strain HR: 3.65 [95% CI: 2.01-6.64; P < 0.001]; NYHA functional class >II HR: 1.81 [95% CI: 1.05-3.12; P = 0.033]; and LGE HR: 2.33 [95% CI: 1.42-3.85; P < 0.001]), whereas age, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, LVEF, left atrial ejection fraction, LAVI, and LV GLS were not. Adding LA conduit strain to other independent predictors (NYHA functional class and LGE) significantly improved the calibration, accuracy, and reclassification of the prediction model (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: LA conduit strain on CMR is a strong independent prognostic predictor in DCM, superior to LV GLS, LVEF, and LAVI and incremental to LGE. Including LA conduit strain in DCM patient management should be considered to improve risk stratification.

Joint modeling of endpoints can be used to answer various research questions in randomized clinical trials.

OBJECTIVES: Correlated longitudinal and time-to-event outcomes, such as the rate of cognitive decline and the onset of Alzheimer's disease, are frequent (co-)primary and key secondary endpoints in randomized clinical trials (RCTs). Despite their biological associations, these types of data are often analyzed separately, leading to loss of information and increases in bias. In this paper, we set out how joint modeling of longitudinal and time-to-event endpoints can be used in RCTs to answer various research questions. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: The key concepts of joint models are introduced and illustrated for a completed trial in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. RESULTS: The output of a joint model can be used to answer different clinically relevant research questions, where the interpretation of effect estimates and those obtained from conventional methods are similar. Albeit joint models have the potential to overcome the limitations of commonly used alternatives, they require additional assumptions regarding the distributions, as well as the associations between two endpoints. CONCLUSION: Improving the uptake of joint models in RCTs may start by outlining the exact research question one seeks to answer, thereby determining how best to prespecify the model and defining the parameter that should be of primary interest.

Near-infrared spectroscopy predicts events in men and women: Results from the Lipid Rich Plaque study.

Background: The Lipid Rich Plaque (LRP) study demonstrated that near-infrared spectroscopy imaging of non-obstructive lesions identified patients and segments at higher risk for subsequent non-culprit major adverse cardiac events (NC-MACE). Whether this is true for both men and women is not known. In this post hoc analysis of the LRP study, we sought to investigate whether the maximum 4-mm Lipid Core Burden Index (maxLCBI4mm) was of similar predictive value in men and women for NC-MACE. Methods: Patients with an evaluable maxLCBI4mm were stratified on the basis of sex at birth. A Cox proportional-hazards model was used to assess the predictive value of maxLCBI4mm on future NC-MACE at the patient and plaque levels. The primary endpoint was cumulative incidence of NC-MACE at 24 months. Results: Among 1271 patients, 388 (30.5%) were women. Women were older and had a higher cardiovascular risk profile. Cumulative incidence of NC-MACE at 24 months was 10.3% for women and 7.6% for men (log-rank p = 0.11). When comparing maxLCBI4mm > 400 to maxLCBI4mm ≤ 400, the hazard ratio (HR) for future NC-MACE was not significantly different between sexes: 2.10 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.28-3.44; p = 0.003) for men and 2.24 (95% CI: 1.18-4.28; p = 0.014) for women (p = 0.87). At the plaque level, the HR comparing maxLCBI4mm > 400 to maxLCBI4mm ≤ 400 was 3.49 (95% CI: 1.60-7.60, p = 0.002) for men and 4.79 (95% CI: 2.02-11.38, p < 0.001) for women, which was not significantly different (p = 0.57). Conclusions: The maxLCBI4mm was of similar predictive value for NC-MACE within 24 months in men and women.

CeRebrUm and CardIac Protection with ALlopurinol in Neonates with Critical Congenital Heart Disease Requiring Cardiac Surgery with Cardiopulmonary Bypass (CRUCIAL): study protocol of a phase III, randomized, quadruple-blinded, placebo-controlled, Dutch multicenter trial.

BACKGROUND: Neonates with critical congenital heart disease (CCHD) undergoing cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) are at risk of brain injury that may result in adverse neurodevelopment. To date, no therapy is available to improve long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes of CCHD neonates. Allopurinol, a xanthine oxidase inhibitor, prevents the formation of reactive oxygen and nitrogen species, thereby limiting cell damage during reperfusion and reoxygenation to the brain and heart. Animal and neonatal studies suggest that allopurinol reduces hypoxic-ischemic brain injury and is cardioprotective and safe. This trial aims to test the hypothesis that allopurinol administration in CCHD neonates will result in a 20% reduction in moderate to severe ischemic and hemorrhagic brain injury. METHODS: This is a phase III, randomized, quadruple-blinded, placebo-controlled, multicenter trial. Neonates with a prenatal or postnatal CCHD diagnosis requiring cardiac surgery with CPB in the first 4 weeks after birth are eligible to participate. Allopurinol or mannitol-placebo will be administered intravenously in 2 doses early postnatally in neonates diagnosed antenatally and 3 doses perioperatively of 20 mg/kg each in all neonates. The primary outcome is a composite endpoint of moderate/severe ischemic or hemorrhagic brain injury on early postoperative MRI, being too unstable for postoperative MRI, or mortality within 1 month following CPB. A total of 236 patients (n = 188 with prenatal diagnosis) is required to demonstrate a reduction of the primary outcome incidence by 20% in the prenatal group and by 9% in the postnatal group (power 80%; overall type 1 error controlled at 5%, two-sided), including 1 interim analysis at n = 118 (n = 94 with prenatal diagnosis) with the option to stop early for efficacy. Secondary outcomes include preoperative and postoperative brain injury severity, white matter injury volume (MRI), and cardiac function (echocardiography); postnatal and postoperative seizure activity (aEEG) and regional cerebral oxygen saturation (NIRS); neurodevelopment at 3 months (general movements); motor, cognitive, and language development and quality of life at 24 months; and safety and cost-effectiveness of allopurinol. DISCUSSION: This trial will investigate whether allopurinol administered directly after birth and around cardiac surgery reduces moderate/severe ischemic and hemorrhagic brain injury and improves cardiac function and neurodevelopmental outcome in CCHD neonates. TRIAL REGISTRATION: EudraCT 2017-004596-31. Registered on November 14, 2017. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04217421. Registered on January 3, 2020.